Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Bull and Bear on China

19 Century belongs to UK;
20 Century belongs to US;
21 Century belongs to China?!

It is generally a consensus among most economic and political obeservers that China will become the dominant force in the 21st Century. China's 8-10 percent economic growth is widely expected to continue in the foreseeable future. However the rise of China is not without sceptics. Main point argued is the inherent inefficiency and instability of central command economy. Below are two excellent pieces from Vitaliy Katsenelson and James Chanos highlighting the bubble nature of Chinese economy. Both are well-articulated and well-researched. My humble view is that there is no crystal ball to tell how China' story will evolve. It is something Buffett categorized "important but unknowable".

China - The Mother of All Black Swans - By Vitaliy Katsenelson

James Chanos See "Overheating and Overindulgence" in China

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